What Are Penn State’s Chances of Making the College Football Playoff?

Penn State has made just one appearance in the College Football Playoff since it debuted in a four-team format in 2014. Immediately after the field expanded to 12 teams in 2024, the Nittany Lions clinched the No. 6 spot and defeated SMU and Boise State en route to a semifinal loss to Notre Dame.

For Penn State to return to the playoffs in head coach Matt Campbell’s first year, several things will have to fall correctly. The most important is winning as many games as possible against a schedule that’s been dubbed by many as the weakest in the Big Ten.

The Nittany Lions’ three main challenges are USC, Washington and Michigan, with the latter two on the road. Winning a Big Ten championship would earn Penn State an auto-bid, but the odds of that are slim (+2200 per DraftKings), so they’ll likely be relying on an at-large bid.

Four Big Ten teams made the CFP in 2024, while three punched tickets in 2025. The conference has claimed three consecutive national championships with an 11-3 playoff record (excluding intraconference games) during that span. Overall, the Big Ten should have the benefit of the doubt when it comes to at-large bids.

For Penn State, finishing as one of the top four teams in the conference in the eyes of the committee will be paramount to a playoff berth. Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana are viewed as the top tier of the Big Ten, with the next tier comprising Penn State, Michigan, USC and Washington, so that trio of games is even more critical for the Nittany Lions.

At 12-0, even with a loss in the conference title game, Penn State would be firmly in the playoffs. At 11-1, that’s also a virtual lock. But at 10-2 or 9-3, which are some of the more likely outcomes, it becomes a résumé contest.

At 10-2 the Nittany Lions are likely in, but going 9-3 against this year’s schedule would almost certainly leave them on the outside. Assuming Penn State needs to be at least 10-2 to make it, here’s what fans should root for if the Nittany Lions are on the bubble in 2026:

USC, Michigan and Washington

This one is tricky.

Penn State realistically needs to beat at least one of these teams, and it’ll want that team (or teams) to succeed the rest of the year. Holding wins over ranked teams is a major résumé boost and the head-to-head victory can go a long way.

But if the Nittany Lions lose to one or two of these teams, they won’t want to end up near them in the rankings, because the head-to-head loss will push them below.

This happened last year when 10-2 Miami jumped 10-2 Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff rankings because of an earlier head-to-head win despite the Fighting Irish arguably having a better overall résumé. Based on that, the committee has set the precedent that head-to-head wins will be prioritized between teams with the same record.

If the Trojans, Wolverines and/or Huskies beat Penn State but have otherwise worse seasons (9-3 or worse) the head-to-head won’t come into play since they won’t be close enough in the rankings to a 10-2 Nittany Lion squad.

Alternatively, if Penn State loses to one or two of those teams and those teams go 12-0 or 11-1. A loss to an undefeated or near-perfect team isn’t super harmful to the Nittany Lions’ résumé.

But the worst-case scenario is the team(s) that beat Penn State finish at 10-2 and automatically get bumped ahead of the Nittany Lions due to the head-to-head victory. Essentially, Penn State wants to beat these teams, but if it loses, it doesn’t want to end up near them in the rankings.

Ohio State Beats Texas and Michigan Beats Oklahoma

These two marquee nonconference games — essentially a rival swap — will play a large role in determining how the Big Ten is viewed relative to the SEC. If the Buckeyes and Wolverines can sweep or split against upper-tier SEC squads, it’ll help boost the conference’s relative strength and could sway a fourth or even fifth at-large bid to the Big Ten.

Miami and Texas Tech Dominate Their Conferences

The ACC and Big 12 are guaranteed to get one auto-bid into the field regardless, so it’s the at-large contenders that could throw things into chaos. If the Hurricanes or Red Raiders go 12-0 or 11-1 but lose in the conference championship game, it opens up the door for the ACC and Big 12 to become multi-bid leagues.

The champion would get in automatically, and either of these teams would still have a compelling argument as runners-up, adding more teams into the bubble.

The cleanest outcome is Miami and Texas Tech go 13-0 and no other ACC or Big 12 teams finish with fewer than two losses. Last year, 10-3 Alabama made the playoffs over 11-2 BYU, so a 10-2 Penn State squad will almost certainly be in over a two-loss Big 12 or ACC school.

Technically this could apply to any ACC or Big 12 team, but Miami and Texas Tech are the most likely to dominate their respective conferences. Avoiding “bid thieves” here will help the Nittany Lions.

Notre Dame Collapses

This one isn’t likely — the Fighting Irish have one of the most talented rosters in the country paired with an extremely light schedule. Their starting quarterback CJ Carr is a Heisman contender and they have the best odds of any team to make the playoffs.

But if Notre Dame goes 10-2 or worse and misses out on a bid, it opens up another spot in the playoffs.

This logic doesn’t work for teams like Miami and Texas Tech, because even if they collapse, another team will claim the conference title and auto-bid. But the Fighting Irish can only earn an at-large spot, which would be opened up if they can’t finish in the top 12.

The SEC Develops an Upper Tier

Despite failing to have a team reach the national championship game for three straight seasons, the SEC remains extremely deep. Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss and Oklahoma are viewed as legitimate playoff candidates, and if several of them finish in the 9-3 to 10-2 range, the Nittany Lions could be in trouble.

All of these schools have tougher strength of schedule ratings than Penn State, so finishing with the same record means they would likely get priority.

The best-case scenario for the Nittany Lions is three or four SEC teams establish themselves as the top dogs, going 12-0 or 11-1, while the others fall to the 8-4 range or worse. This hasn’t been the case recently, but it would clear up competition in the bubble.